Rogue Basin Climate Change Impact Report At A Glance

  • Expected increases in year-round temperatures of up to 3 degrees Fahrenheit by 2040 and up to 8 degrees by 2080. Summertime high temperatures are likely to rise by up to 15 degrees by 2080.
  • A dramatic decrease in snow accumulation with earlier mountain snowmelt, transition from snow to rain, and higher and flashier winter and spring runoff events. Less snow in the mountains means extended low stream flows in the summer.
  • An increase in the amount of biomass burned by wildfires by 2040, according to two models in the report. However, the number of wildfires is expected to decrease toward the end of the century because of changing vegetation.
  • A gradual shift from conifers to hardwoods such as oaks and madrone. The changing vegetation is expected to decrease biodiversity.
  • Increased and extended summer temperatures along with extended periods of lower summer stream flows. This likely will result in decreased dissolved oxygen and increased incidence of bacteria and disease, producing fish kills.
  • Increased incidence of fire as well as longer fire seasons, larger fires and higher-elevation fires that would likely affect vegetation and wildlife and could lead to sudden shifts in ecological communities.
  • Increased invasive species and pest issues.
  • Increase of chaparral, grasslands and scrublands because of hotter and drier climate. Drought-tolerant species that may benefit include oak, madrone and mountain mahogany.
  • Decrease in high-elevation wildlife such as Clark's nutcracker. High-elevation vegetation, including hemlock and wildflowers, may also be at risk.
  • Decline in amphibians because of lack of mobility, affinity for unique microsites and susceptibility to drought, heat and habitat change.
  • The 58-page report, to be presented Monday, was prepared by Bob Doppelt and Roger Hamilton of the Climate Leadership Initiative and Institute for Sustainable Environment at the University of Oregon along with scientists Cindy Deacon Williams and Marni Koopman at the National Center for Conservation Science & Policy in Ashland.

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